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How to make better decisions: Practical exercises from professional poker
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How to make better decisions: Practical exercises from professional poker
Decision Exploration Table

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Results

This page is meant for the facilitator of the meeting to lead a discussion with the team on the results.
Facilitator instructions
- Collate all the responses, find common reasons, and put into the table below (if doing as a team).
- Go through each quadrant and lead a discussion on where there’s agreement and where there are differences in likelihoods.
- Ask the questions below and write in responses from team.

1. Do we want to change the decision based on results?

Write notes here.

2. What can we do to decrease the likelihood of failure? Increase the likelihood of success?

Create accountability early and
Ulysses contracts
⁠
.

3. For reasons that involve luck, what can we do to increase chances that good luck comes our way? What’s our plan if we get bad luck?

Hedges - Something that reduces the impact of bad luck when it occurs. Has a cost and you hope to never use it.
Signposting - What are the early signals that things are not going our way? What are the early signals things are going well? What are the things that the world could reveal to me or that I could reveal about myself that would cause me to want to change course?

Control
Type
Failure (premortem)
Success (backcast)
Reason
Likelihood
Reason
Likelihood
Skill (in your control)
Add reason here
70%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
70%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
50%
Luck (outside your control)
Add reason here
70%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
70%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
60%
Add reason here
50%
Add reason here
50%
⁠

⁠
👉 Next exercise:
Better Team Conversations
⁠
⁠
⁠

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